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aktualizováno: 11.08.2017 16:23:51 

Aleš Bulíř

Work in progress

I'm working on several papers with various people (ordered here alphabetically). I usually work on more papers than I can handle, both physically and mentally, as I routinely underestimate the time it takes to finalize a paper. It's not really funny, and certainly not for my co-authors, but I find it hard to resist starting a new paper every once in a while...

Martin Čihák. Our papers deal with empirical estimates of Taylor rules and policy communication of the European Central Bank. They are out as IMF working papers and currently submitted in journals. For Martin's papers see www.ssrn.com/author=735014.

Jaromír Hurník. We work (with David Vávra) on a paper that tries to compare the macroeconomic impact of FOREX interventions to the impact of an exchange rate commitment.

David-Jan Jansen. With David-Jan and Martin we try to explain readability of inflation reports in a sample of inflation targeting countries. For David-Jans's papers see http://members.casema.nl/davidjanjansen/.

Jan Vlček. We are working on empirical papers on the transmission mechanism of the (policy) interest rate along the yield curve, focusing on emerging and low-income countries. We now try to extend our last paper to (marginal) lending rates.

 

Work in progress (and available for comments):

Bulíř, Aleš, Jan Vlček, "Monetary Transmission : Do Lending Rates Follow the Policy Rates?We use the Diebold-Li representation of the yield curve to test the functioning of the interest rate transmission mechanism along the yield curve based on marginal lending rates in a small sample of countries.

 

Bulíř, Aleš, Jan Vlček, "Monetary Transmission: Are Emerging Market and Low-Income Countries Different?We use the Christensen, Diebold, and Rudebusch (2011) representation of the yield curve to test the functioning of the interest rate transmission mechanism along the yield curve based on government paper in advanced, emerging market, and low-income countries. We find a robust link from the policy and short-term interbank rates to the longer-term bond yields in all countries. Two policy implications emerge. First, the presence of well-developed secondary markets does not seem to affect transmission of short term rates along the yield curve. Second, the strength of the transmission mechanism seems to be affected by the choice of the monetary regime: the sample advanced countries with a credible inflation targeting regime seem to have better-behaved yield curves than the countries with other monetary regimes. 

Individual country results are here.


Bulíř, Aleš; Čihák, Martin, Jansen, David-Jan, "Does Clear Central Bank Communication on Inflation Affect Volatility in Financial Markets?"We study whether clarity of central bank communication on inflation affects return volatility in financial markets. We measure clarity of inflation reports by the Czech National Bank, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and Sveriges Riksbank using the Flesch-Kincaid grade level, a standard readability measure. We find evidence of a negative relationship between clarity and market volatility prior to and during the early stage of the global financial crisis. However, as the crisis unfolded, there is no longer robust evidence of a negative connection. We conclude that reducing noise using clear communication is possible, but not without challenges in times of crisis.

 

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